CEE 200 Seminar: Dr. David Lallemant

Dr. David Lallemant

Disaster Risk Management Consultant, The World Bank

“Dynamic Risk Forecasting of Rapidly Changing Urban Environments”


Abstract

Key to making informed policy decisions to promote resilient and sustainable future cities is the ability to predict their risk as it relates to dynamic changes in our urban environments, reflecting increases in population, specific urban growth patterns and evolving vulnerability. Yet current seismic risk assessment practice characterizes the components of risk (hazard, exposure and vulnerability) in a static state. In this presentation, a framework for modeling urban risk is described, accounting for the spatial and temporal variations in exposure and vulnerability in order to develop trajectories of future risk. The framework makes use of an integrated cellular automata and time-inhomogeneous Markov chain simulation to model urban expansion (new buildings) as well as urban densification (through incremental building expansion). Novel methods for modeling the fragility of buildings will also be presented. The framework is then applied on a case study of Cap-Haitien in Haiti. Based on sparse baseline data, the results show a significant growth in urban seismic risk over time, which increases much faster still than population. The results underline the importance of time-dependent risk models that can forecast future risk, so that proactive policy can be implemented to ensure a more resilient urban future.


Bio

David Lallemant recently completed his PhD from Stanford University. His research focuses on understanding and quantifying the evolution of extreme risk in today’s growing cities. He uses earthquake sciences and engineering, urban analytics, predictive modeling and spatial statistics for application in natural disaster risk analysis as well as urban analytics more broadly. The multi-disciplinary and policy-oriented nature of his work has led him to build collaborations with the World Bank, the Red Cross, Google, USGS and others. He holds a master’s degree from UC Berkeley (2010) and bachelor’s degree from MIT (2007). David is part of the teaching faculty at the Understanding and Managing Extremes Graduate School in Pavia, Italy. David is also active in post-disaster response and recovery, which forms the basis for his research on post-disaster assessment and community resilience. He worked for two years in Haiti following the 2010 earthquake and has been involved with the response and recovery following the recent earthquake in Nepal.

Date/Time:
Date(s) - Feb 09, 2016
4:00 pm - 5:15 pm

Location:
Physics and Astronomy Building 1434A
Physics and Astronomy Building 1434A Los Angeles CA 90098